每日宏观动态

US: Initial jobless claims (May 31): 247k vs 235k expected (prior: 239k revised from 240k)

• Continuing claims: 1904 k after 1907 k previous week.

 

US: Nonfarm productivity (Q1-25): -1.5% q/q vs -0.8% expected (prior: 1.7%)

• As activity weakened while costs stayed on a rising trend, productivity has sharply declined over the quarter.
• Unit labor costs were up by 6.6%q after 3.8% in Q4.

 

US: Trade balance (April): -61.6 bn USD vs -66 bn expected (prior: -138.3 bn revised from -140.5 bn)

• Exports were up by 3% m/m after 0.9% m/m the prior month; exports of industrial goods were the most dynamic.
• Imports have decreased by 16.3% m/m (4.7% m/m prior month): all imports were down but autos and industrial good imports have declined the most over the month.

 

The ECB cut its key rates by 25 bp to 2% as expected.

• One governor has dissented in today meeting decision.
• The statement about the economy looks constructive, as support to domestic activity (infrastructure and defence) could balance uncertainties for trade. It has also noted that consumption should strengthen further on higher real incomes and solid labor.
• The ECB welcomed current inflation (1.9% y/y in May) is back to its medium-term target of 2%.
• The ECB has not made major revisions to its forecasts but focused on various growth and inflation scenarios according to developments in trade situation. Lagarde has focused on the prevailing risks related to trade uncertainties and possible different outcomes on growth and inflation resulting from trade issues (details not available yet).
• The ECB expects 2025 growth at 0.9%, 1.1% in 2026 and 1.3% in 2027, the latter year should benefit from the support to domestic activity launched this year.
• Inflation is expected to settle at 2% in 2025, 1.6% in 2026 (effect of lower energy prices and strong euro) and to regain to 2% in 2027. Core inflation is expected to average 2.4% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026 and 2027.
• The monetary policy remains data dependent; indirectly, the ECB refers to the current 2% on rates as an equilibrium level (a neutral position); next move around this level should come only if the global growth/inflation scenario moves from its current situation and projections.
• This means the ECB could stay for a while at this 2% level and could move sideways next meetings; the next move on rates should be under conditions that the outlook changes, which reduces probability of other large cuts and sounds like the end of the regular easing process.

 

Eurozone: PPI (April): -2.2% m/m vs -2.1% expected (prior: -1.7% revised from -1.6%)

• Prices have contracted due to another sharp fall in energy prices (-4.7% m/m after -5.8% m/m prior month).
• Yearly trend has declined from 1.9% y/y prior month to 0.7% y/y.

 

Germany: Factory orders (April): 0.6% m/m vs -1.5% expected (prior: 3.4% revised from 3.6%)

• Orders have increased further, thanks to a strong rise in domestic orders up by 2.2% m/m (due to orders in capital goods).
• Foreign orders have contracted by 0.3% m/m after a strong rebound the prior month.

 

Sweden: CPI (May): 0.1% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.2%)

• Preliminary data have shown limited rise in prices; core inflation was up by 0.2% m/m after 0.5% m/m prior month.
• Yearly trend remained stable at 2.3%y/y, while core inflation declined from 3.1% y/y prior month to 2.5% y/y.

 

Switzerland: Unemployment rate (sa) (May): 2.9% vs 2.8% expected (prior: 2.8%)

• Unemployment has slightly increased in seasonally adjusted terms.

US: ADP Employment change (May): 37k vs 114k expected (prior: 60k revised from 62k)

• Data remained weak and prior month figures were revised down; contrary to JOLTS survey, the data points to weakening labor with specific weaknesses.
• Jobs have turned negative in small firms (-3K) and large firms (-3k) while they increased for medium-sized firms (+49k).
• By sector, jobs have contracted in the goods sector but remained on same positive trend in services than the prior month (36 k).
• Wage growth remained sustained with no change from past month data (4.5% y/y for job-stayers; 7% y/y for job-changers).
• More contrast in labor is perceived across sectors and size of firms.

 

US: Services PMI (May F): 53.7 vs 52.3 expected (prior: 50.8)

• The PMI was revised slightly higher, indicating solid expansion. Domestic client spending increased as the business environment stabilized, but foreign demand fell for the second month due to tariff concerns and U.S. trade policy.
• Composite PMI was revised to 53.0 from 52.1.

 

US: ISM Services (May): 49.9 vs 52.0 expected (prior: 51.6)

• US services contracts for the first time in nearly a year, driven by an abrupt pullback in demand and higher tariffs.
• Production stalled (50 vs 53.7) and new orders (46.4 vs 52.3) and inventories (49.7 vs 53.4) contracted, and backlogs of orders shrink faster (43.4 vs 48). Also, price pressures intensified to the highest since November 2022 (68.7 vs 65.1), likely impacted by tariffs.
• ISM respondents report continued challenges in forecasting and planning due to long-term tariff uncertainties. Many are delaying or minimizing orders until the situation becomes clearer, highlighting the widespread impact of these economic pressures.

 

Eurozone: PMI Services (May): 49.7 vs 48.9 expected (prior: 50.1)

• Confidence has declined from the previous month, with the index slipping just below 50. However, the drop is less severe than initially estimated; new orders have decreased and remained below 50; export orders were also weak while employment was mildly positive.
• Costs and prices remained stable from the prior month.
• Confidence has weakened in Germany (index at 47.1), but it has regained in France (48.9) while it was mixed in Spain (51.3) and Italy (53.2).

 

Spain: Industrial production (April): -0.8% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: 0.9%)

• Production has fallen over the month driven by a sharp contraction in the energy sector (-5.5% m/m), a modest decrease in capital and intermediary goods; production on durable consumer goods remained positive over the month.

 

UK: PMI Services (May): 50.9 vs 50.2 expected (prior: 49)

• Business confidence has rebounded from the prior month, surpassing the expectations and crossing the 50 level.
• Demand has stabilized and activity slightly regained with still concerns from tariffs. Exports were stable but after a large decline seen in past months.
• While wage costs continue to drive up expenses, strong competition is holding back potential price increases for consumers.

US: Factory orders (April): -3.7% m/m vs -3.2% expected (prior: 3.4% revised from 4.3%)

• Orders by sectors were highly volatile over the past months; orders have decreased for aircrafts but increased for defense sector and metals over the month.
• Orders for capital goods non-defense ex aircraft were down by 1.5% m/m after 0.3% m/m the prior month.
• Shipments were down by 0.3% m/m (-0.2% m/m prior month) and inventories down by 0.1% m/m (0.2% m/m prior month).

 

US: JOLTS Job Openings (April): 7391k vs 7100k expected (prior: 7200k revised from 7192k)

• Jobs openings have rebounded from the prior month, pointing to still sustained demand for labor from firms.
• Openings were strong for several sectors, which saw a reversal after a moderation over the past two months. Openings were more sustained for trade-transport, business services, education and health, but were lower for leisure sector.
• Hirings were also more sustained over the month for the same sectors mentioned above and also for leisure.
• Separations have increased, notably for business services and leisure while quitters have decreased in all major sectors.

 

Eurozone: CPI estimate (May): 1.9% y/y vs 2% expected (prior: 2.2%)

• Inflation first estimate has passed below the 2%, thanks to declining energy prices and services over the month.
• Energy prices were down by 1.2% m/m after -2.3% m/m prior month and down by a strong 3.6% y/y.
• Services were down by 0.1% m/m (1.4% m/m prior month) and declined from 4% y/y to 3.2% y/y.
• Good prices were up by 0.1% m/m (0.4% m/m prior month) and remained on a stable yearly trend as past months (0.6% y/y).
• Food prices remained sustained, up by 0.5% m/m after 0.3% m/m, and up by 3.3% y/y. Core inflation was flat over the month and declined to 2.3% y/y from 2.7% y/y.
• These good results on inflation may validate the next Thursday decline in ECB rates, but a debate should reopen within the ECB if it is necessary to go below the 2% neutral rate.

 

Eurozone: Unemployment rate (April): 6.2% as expected (prior: 6.3% revised from 6.2%)

• Trend remained positive in labor and unemployed has decreased further over the month.

 

Italy: Unemployment rate (April): 5.9% vs 6.1% expected (prior: 6.1% revised from 6%)

• Unemployed has decreased further over the month.

 

Switzerland: CPI (May): 0.1% m/m as expected (prior: 0%)

• Food prices remained sustained, up by 1.5% m/m (0.1% m/m prior month), but other prices were modest: good prices up by 0.2% m/m (as seen prior month) and services up by 0.1% m/m (-0.1% m/m prior month).
• Energy prices were sharply down by 1.3% m/m after -0.1% m/m the prior month; imported goods were flat over the month. Core inflation was up by 0.1% m/m as seen the prior month.
• Yearly trend has passed in negative territory, being down by 0.2% after 0% y/y the prior month. Energy prices (-8.3% y/y), good prices (-1.9% y/y) and imported goods (-2.4% y/y) were responsible for the decline in inflation. Core inflation has declined from 0.8% y/y prior month to 0.6% y/y.
• This should motivate SNB to decline further its key rates to 0% next meeting.

 

Turkey: CPI (May): 1.53% m/m vs 2% expected (prior: 3%)

• Monthly inflation has moderated from the prior month, but pace remained sustained.
• Prices remained sustained for clothes and housing, and were also strong in transport, education and leisure sectors.
• Yearly trend has declined from 37.86% y/y prior month to 35.41% y/y, and core inflation from 37.12% y/y to 35.37% y/y.

US: Manufacturing PMI (May): 52 vs 52.3 expected (prior: 50.2)

• Final PMI has rebounded from the prior month, thanks to the pause on tariffs, but slightly less than expected.
• Opinions have increased on orders and employment over the month.

 

US: ISM Manufacturing (May): 48.5 vs 49.5 expected (prior: 48.7)

• Business sentiment remained depressed over the month, contrary to PMI manufacturing which is more small firms oriented.
• Opinions have only marginally increased over the month on production, orders and employment but remained depressed on exports; inventories have decreased, as well as a marginal decline in prices paid.
• Large and export firms remained worried by uncertainties about trade, tariffs and potential retaliation from partners.

 

US: Construction spending (April): -0.4% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.8% revised from -0.5%)

• Residential construction has fallen further (-0.9% m/m after -1.1% m/m the prior month).

 

Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing (May): 49.4 as expected (prior: 49)

• Final data have confirmed the modest rebound in business sentiment over the month thanks to the pause on tariffs and firmer global demand in advance of rising tariffs.
• PMI index has increased from the prior month for France and Spain but slightly decreased for Italy and marginally in Germany; index remained just below the 50 level except for Greece and Spain.
• Production has benefited from firmer demand ahead of tariffs and a stabilization in demand, as well on exports. Firms have reduced inventories and stabilized their employment.
• Input costs have decreased and enable output prices to ease.

 

Poland: PMI Manufacturing (May): 47.1 vs 50.2 expected (prior: 50.2)

• Business sentiment has decreased below 50, due to lower sentiment on both production and new orders.

 

Norway: PMI (May): 51.2 (prior: 46.2 revised from 46.1)

• Sentiment has rebounded, and the index was above the 50 level, thanks to improving new orders.

 

Sweden: PMI Manufacturing (May): 53.6 (prior: 54.2)

• Business sentiment has decreased from the prior month, but the index remained well above the 50 level.
• The details offered a mixed picture; sentiment has regained on production and employment form the prior month while it decreased on orders. Among all major components, only exports related index has passed below the 50 level.

 

Switzerland: GDP (Q1-25): 0.5% q/q vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.2%)

• Growth was more sustained than expected in Q1 thanks to larger contribution form net exports while domestic demand has slowed down from Q4-24.

 

Switzerland: PMI Manufacturing (May): 42.1 vs 48 expected (prior: 45.8)

• Business sentiment has collapsed over the month with fears from trade and tariffs.
• Opinions have sharply declined on orders and decreased on production and employment. Price paid were on the rise.
• Services PMI has increased from 52.4 to 56.3 over the month. Details offered a mix picture as opinions have increased on activity and new orders but decreased on employment; prices in services were on the rise.

 

UK: PMI Manufacturing (May): 46.4 vs 45.1 expected (prior: 45.1)

• Business sentiment has marginally increased thanks to firmer new orders but both related indices remained below the 50 level.
• Sentiment has decreased on production and exports; input costs have decreased while final prices remained on the rise.

 

UK: Nationwide house prices (May): 0.5% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: -0.6%)

• Prices have rebounded over the month; yearly trend has slightly increased from 3.4% y/y prior month to 3.5% y/y.

 

UK: M4 (April): 3.2% y/y (prior: 3.4%)

• M4 lending has marginally increased from 2% y/y prior month to 2.1% y/y.
• Credit to consumers has increased for consumption and decreased on housing (numbers of mortgage approvals have decreased from 63.6 k to 60.4 k over the month).
• Credit to firms has rebounded for small firms but decreased for large firms.

 

Brazil: PMI Manufacturing (May): 49.4 (prior: 50.3)

• Business sentiment has decreased over the month and the index passed below the 50 level. Sentiment has declined on production and new orders over the month.

 

Turkey: PMI Manufacturing (May): 47.2 (prior: 47.3)

• Business confidence has marginally decreased over the month; sentiment on new orders and production has decreased over the month as demand has weakened.
• Costs remained on the rise.